LU Cuncun, CHEN Zijia, WANG Zhifei. Novel Framework (Target Trial Emulation) in Observational Causal Inference Research Based on Real-world Data and Its Application Prospects in Traditional Chinese Medicine[J]. Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital, 2024, 15(2): 422-428. DOI: 10.12290/xhyxzz.2023-0398
Citation: LU Cuncun, CHEN Zijia, WANG Zhifei. Novel Framework (Target Trial Emulation) in Observational Causal Inference Research Based on Real-world Data and Its Application Prospects in Traditional Chinese Medicine[J]. Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital, 2024, 15(2): 422-428. DOI: 10.12290/xhyxzz.2023-0398

Novel Framework (Target Trial Emulation) in Observational Causal Inference Research Based on Real-world Data and Its Application Prospects in Traditional Chinese Medicine

Funds: 

CACMS Innovation Fund CI2021A00702

More Information
  • Corresponding author:

    LU Cuncun, E-mail: cuncunlu2017@163.com

    WANG Zhifei, E-mail: wzhftcm@163.com

  • Received Date: August 24, 2023
  • Accepted Date: October 24, 2023
  • Available Online: December 10, 2023
  • Issue Publish Date: March 29, 2024
  • "Target trial emulation" (TTE), as a new framework in real-world research, has been formally established in recent years. It can be used to guide the evaluation of the effectiveness and safety of medical interventions based on real-world data for observational causal inference. The core idea of this framework is to follow the principles of randomized controlled trial (RCT), emulate a corresponding RCT using real-world data, and then draw conclusions about the causal relationship between interventions and outcomes. The main implementation tips of TTE can be summarized as "3-7-2": 3 implementation steps including formulating the causal question, designing the emulation plan, and emulating the target study; 7 design elements including eligibility criteria, treatment strategies, intervention allocation, follow-up period, outcome, causal contrast of interest, and analysis plan; and control of 2 critical biases including immortal time bias and prevalent user bias. In this article, we present an overview of the development, current status, implementation steps, classic examples, advantages and limitations of TTE, and its application prospects in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). It is hoped that this article can assist researchers in TCM to utilize this method for real-world research and contribute to the construction of a clinical evaluation system with distinctive features of TCM.
  • [1]
    马忠贵, 徐晓晗, 刘雪儿. 因果推断三种分析框架及其应用综述[J]. 工程科学学报, 2022, 44(7): 1231-1243. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BJKD202207013.htm

    Ma Z G, Xu X H, Liu X E. Three analytical frameworks of causal inference and their applications[J]. Chin J Eng, 2022, 44(7): 1231-1243. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BJKD202207013.htm
    [2]
    任国强, 王于丹, 周云波. 科学研究中因果推断的方法、应用与展望——以个体健康研究为例[J]. 人口与经济, 2022(2): 1-25. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RKJJ202202001.htm

    Ren G Q, Wang Y D, Zhou Y B. Methods, applications and prospects of causal inference in scientific research: a study of individual health research[J]. Popul Econ, 2022(2): 1-25. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RKJJ202202001.htm
    [3]
    卢存存, 陈子佳, 张强, 等. 基于真实世界数据的目标试验模拟研究: 现状与展望[J]. 中国循证医学杂志, 2023, 23(4): 492-496. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZZXZ202304011.htm

    Lu C C, Chen Z J, Zhang Q, et al. Target trial emulation study based on real world data: status quo and prospect[J]. Chin J Evid Based Med, 2023, 23(4): 492-496. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZZXZ202304011.htm
    [4]
    谢朝荣, 陶庆锋, 胡缤予, 等. 孟德尔随机化研究及其在中医药领域的应用展望[J]. 中医杂志, 2023, 64(5): 438-442. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZZYZ202305002.htm

    Xie C R, Tao Q F, Hu B Y, et al. Mendelian randomization and its application in traditional Chinese medicine[J]. J Tradit Chin Med, 2023, 64(5): 438-442. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZZYZ202305002.htm
    [5]
    Schuler M S, Rose S. Targeted maximum likelihood estima-tion for causal inference in observational studies[J]. Am J Epidemiol, 2017, 185(1): 65-73. DOI: 10.1093/aje/kww165
    [6]
    Hernán M A, Robins J M. Causal inference: what if[M]. Boca Raton: Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2020.
    [7]
    Thomas L E, Li F, Pencina M J. Overlap weighting: a propensity score method that mimics attributes of a randomized clinical trial[J]. JAMA, 2020, 323(23): 2417-2418. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2020.7819
    [8]
    Franklin J M, Glynn R J, Martin D, et al. Evaluating the use of nonrandomized real-world data analyses for regulatory decision making[J]. Clin Pharmacol Ther, 2019, 105(4): 867-877. DOI: 10.1002/cpt.1351
    [9]
    Zhao S S, Lyu H, Solomon D H, et al. Improving rheuma-toid arthritis comparative effectiveness research through causal inference principles: systematic review using a target trial emulation framework[J]. Ann Rheum Dis, 2020, 79(7): 883-890. DOI: 10.1136/annrheumdis-2020-217200
    [10]
    Bykov K, Patorno E, D'Andrea E, et al. Prevalence of avoidable and bias-inflicting methodological pitfalls in real-world studies of medication safety and effectiveness[J]. Clin Pharmacol Ther, 2022, 111(1): 209-217. DOI: 10.1002/cpt.2364
    [11]
    Hansford H J, Cashin A G, Jones M D, et al. Reporting of observational studies explicitly aiming to emulate randomized trials: a systematic review[J]. JAMA Netw Open, 2023, 6(9): e2336023. DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.36023
    [12]
    Murray E J, Marshall B D L, Buchanan A L. Emulating target trials to improve causal inference from Agent-Based models[J]. Am J Epidemiol, 2021, 190(8): 1652-1658. DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwab040
    [13]
    Hernán M A, Robins J M. Using big data to emulate a target trial when a randomized trial is not available[J]. Am J Epidemiol, 2016, 183(8): 758-764. DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwv254
    [14]
    Fu E L. Target trial emulation to improve causal inference from observational data: what, why, and how?[J]. J Am Soc Nephrol, 2023, 34(8): 1305-1314. DOI: 10.1681/ASN.0000000000000152
    [15]
    赵骏, 王骏. 应用模拟目标临床试验概念设计观察性研究时的若干考虑[J]. 中国新药杂志, 2022, 31(18): 1801-1803. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZXYZ202218007.htm

    Zhao J, Wang J. Considerations for designing observational studies using targeted trial emulation concept[J]. Chin J New Drug, 2022, 31(18): 1801-1803. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZXYZ202218007.htm
    [16]
    He W L, Fang Y X, Wang H W. Real-world evidence in medical product development[M]. Cham: Springer, 2023.
    [17]
    国家药监局药审中心. 国家药监局药审中心关于发布《药物真实世界研究设计与方案框架指导原则(试行)》的通告(2023年第5号)[EB/OL]. (2023-02-16)[2023-08-25]. https://www.cde.org.cn/main/news/viewInfoCommon/14aac16a4fc5b5841bc2529988a611cc.

    National Medical Products Administration Drug Approval Center. Notice of the Drug Review Center of the National Medical Products Administration on issuing the guiding principles for the design and protocol framework of real world drug research (trial) (No. 5, 2023)[EB/OL]. (2023-02-16)[2023-08-25]. https://www.cde.org.cn/main/news/viewInfoCommon/14aac16a4fc5b5841bc2529988a611cc.
    [18]
    程海波, 张磊, 付勇, 等. 2023年度中医药重大科学问题、工程技术难题和产业技术问题[J]. 中医杂志, 2023, 64(14): 1405-1421. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZZYZ202314001.htm

    Cheng H B, Zhang L, Fu Y, et al. 2023 Major scientific issues, engineering challenges and industrial technology problems[J]. J Tradit Chin Med, 2023, 64(14): 1405-1421. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZZYZ202314001.htm
    [19]
    Hernán M A, Alonso A, Logan R, et al. Observational studies analyzed like randomized experiments: an application to postmenopausal hormone therapy and coronary heart disease[J]. Epidemiology, 2008, 19(6): 766-779. DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181875e61
    [20]
    Kutcher S A, Brophy J M, Banack H R, et al. Emulating a randomised controlled trial with observational data: an introduction to the target trial framework[J]. Can J Cardiol, 2021, 37(9): 1365-1377. DOI: 10.1016/j.cjca.2021.05.012
    [21]
    Dickerman B A, García-Albéniz X, Logan R W, et al. Avoidable flaws in observational analyses: an application to statins and cancer[J]. Nat Med, 2019, 25(10): 1601-1606. DOI: 10.1038/s41591-019-0597-x
    [22]
    Stürmer T, Wang T S, Golightly Y M, et al. Methodological considerations when analysing and interpreting real-world data[J]. Rheumatology (Oxford), 2020, 59(1): 14-25. DOI: 10.1093/rheumatology/kez320
    [23]
    Vail E A, Gershengorn H B, Wunsch H, et al. Attention to immortal time bias in critical care research[J]. Am J Respir Crit Care Med, 2021, 203(10): 1222-1229. DOI: 10.1164/rccm.202008-3238CP
    [24]
    Sendor R, Stürmer T. Core concepts in pharmacoepidemiology: Confounding by indication and the role of active comparators[J]. Pharmacoepidemiol Drug Saf, 2022, 31(3): 261-269. DOI: 10.1002/pds.5407
    [25]
    Hernán M A. How to estimate the effect of treatment duration on survival outcomes using observational data[J]. BMJ, 2018, 360: k182.
    [26]
    Schneeweiss S, Patorno E. Conducting real-world evidence studies on the clinical outcomes of diabetes treatments[J]. Endocr Rev, 2021, 42(5): 658-690. DOI: 10.1210/endrev/bnab007
    [27]
    Hansford H J, Cashin A G, Jones M D, et al. Development of the TrAnsparent ReportinG of observational studies Emulating a Target trial (TARGET) guideline[J]. BMJ Open, 2023, 13(9): e074626. DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-074626
    [28]
    Wang S V, Schneeweiss S, RCT-DUPLICATE Initiative. Emulation of randomized clinical trials with nonrandomized database analyses: results of 32 clinical trials[J]. JAMA, 2023, 329(16): 1376-1385. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2023.4221
    [29]
    Patorno E, Schneeweiss S, Gopalakrishnan C, et al. Using real-world data to predict findings of an ongoing phase Ⅳ cardiovascular outcome trial: cardiovascular safety of linagliptin versus glimepiride[J]. Diabetes Care, 2019, 42(12): 2204-2210. DOI: 10.2337/dc19-0069
    [30]
    Admon A J, Donnelly J P, Casey J D, et al. Emulating a novel clinical trial using existing observational data. Predicting results of the PreVent study[J]. Ann Am Thorac Soc, 2019, 16(8): 998-1007. DOI: 10.1513/AnnalsATS.201903-241OC
    [31]
    Hernán M A, Wang W, Leaf D E. Target trial emulation: a framework for causal inference from observational data[J]. JAMA, 2022, 328(24): 2446-2447. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2022.21383
    [32]
    王志飞, 谢雁鸣. 中药上市后"三维四阶" 临床定位技术的构想与实践[J]. 中国中药杂志, 2021, 46(8): 1967-1972. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGZY202108016.htm

    Wang Z F, Xie Y M. Conception and practice of "three dimensions and four stages" clinical orientation method for post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine[J]. Chin Mater Med, 2021, 46(8): 1967-1972. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGZY202108016.htm
    [33]
    安娜, 韩玲, 陈平雁. "三结合" 中药注册审评证据体系下中药新药真实世界研究的思考[J]. 中国新药杂志, 2022, 31(14): 1359-1363. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZXYZ202214003.htm

    An N, Han L, Chen P Y. Reflections on real world research under the evidence system of "three combinations" registration and evaluation of new traditional Chinese medicine[J]. Chin J New Drug, 2022, 31(14): 1359-1363. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZXYZ202214003.htm
    [34]
    Moler-Zapata S, Hutchings A, O'neill S, et al. Emulating target trials with real-world data to inform health technology assessment: findings and lessons from an application to emergency surgery[J]. Value Health, 2023, 26(8): 1164-1174. DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2023.04.010
    [35]
    Gomes M, Latimer N, Soares M, et al. Target trial emulation for transparent and robust estimation of treatment effects for health technology assessment using real-world data: opportunities and challenges[J]. Pharmacoeconomics, 2022, 40(6): 577-586. DOI: 10.1007/s40273-022-01141-x
    [36]
    Zhang Y Q, Lu L M, Xu N G, et al. Increasing the usefulness of acupuncture guideline recommendations[J]. BMJ, 2022, 376: e070533.
    [37]
    Zuo H X, Yu L, Campbell S M, et al. The implementation of target trial emulation for causal inference: a scoping review[J]. J Clin Epidemiol, 2023, 162: 29-37. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2023.08.003
    [38]
    Scola G, Chis Ster A, Bean D, et al. Implementation of the trial emulation approach in medical research: a scoping review[J]. BMC Med Res Methodol, 2023, 23(1): 186. DOI: 10.1186/s12874-023-02000-9
    [39]
    中华医学会临床流行病学和循证医学分会中医学组. 新时代中医药临床研究方法论专家共识[J]. 协和医学杂志, 2022, 13(5): 783-788. DOI: 10.12290/xhyxzz.2022-0428

    Chinese Medicine Group, Clinical Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine Association of Chinese Medical Association. Expert consensus on clinical research methodology of traditional Chinese medicine in the new era[J]. Med J PUMCH, 2022, 13(5): 783-788. DOI: 10.12290/xhyxzz.2022-0428
    [40]
    杨丰文, 季昭臣, 张明妍, 等. 中医药临床研究浪费原因及对策[J]. 中国循证医学杂志, 2018, 18(11): 1212-1215. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZZXZ201811015.htm

    Yang F W, Ji Z C, Zhang M Y, et al. Causes and countermeasures of waste in clinical research of Chinese medicine[J]. Chin J Evid Based Med, 2018, 18(11): 1212-1215. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZZXZ201811015.htm
    [41]
    Hoffmann J M, Bauer A, Grossmann R. The carbon footprint of clinical trials: a global survey on the status quo and current regulatory guidance[J]. BMJ Glob Health, 2023, 8(9): e012754. DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-012754
  • Related Articles

    [1]ZHANG Shan, LIU Jie. Interpretation of NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines for Primary Cutaneous Lymphomas (Version 1.2024) Based on the Current Diagnosis and Treatment Status of China[J]. Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital, 2024, 15(5): 1029-1037. DOI: 10.12290/xhyxzz.2024-0605
    [2]TIAN Kunling, CHEN Chuanning. Notch Signaling Pathway and Congenital Heart Disease[J]. Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital, 2024, 15(3): 649-654. DOI: 10.12290/xhyxzz.2023-0594
    [3]ZHANG Lu, LI Jian. Castleman Disease in China: State-of-the-art Technology Before the Era of IL-6 Targeted Therapy[J]. Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital, 2023, 14(5): 911-914. DOI: 10.12290/xhyxzz.2023-0227
    [4]LI Wendao, GU Hao, WANG Wei, WU Runhui, SONG Hongmei. First Case Report of FOXN1 Haploinsufficiency in China and Literature Review[J]. Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital, 2023, 14(2): 366-372. DOI: 10.12290/xhyxzz.2022-0040
    [5]LIU Yuan, ZHAO Lin. Update and Interpretation of 2022 National Comprehensive Cancer Network Clinical Practice Guidelines for Gastric Cancer[J]. Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital, 2022, 13(6): 999-1004. DOI: 10.12290/xhyxzz.2022-0271
    [6]ZHAO Zhe, TANG Yan, ZHOU Jingya, CHEN Xiaoguang, ZHANG Lei, CHEN Limeng, YUAN Tao. Analysis of Clinical Manifestations and Drug Therapies of Gitelman Syndrome[J]. Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital, 2022, 13(2): 277-286. DOI: 10.12290/xhyxzz.2021-0180
    [7]Rare Diseases Society of Chinese Research Hospital Association, National Rare Diseases Committee, Beijing Rare Disease Diagnosis, Treatment and Protection Society, Gitelman Syndrome Consensus Working Group. Expert Consensus for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Gitelman Syndrome in China (2021)[J]. Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital, 2021, 12(6): 902-912. DOI: 10.12290/xhyxzz.2021-0555
    [8]LI Guo-yu, HE Ming. Research Progress of Targeted Therapy at Rare Targets for Non-small Cell Lung Cancer[J]. Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital, 2021, 12(2): 268-274. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-9081.2020.00.019
    [10]Ming-sheng MA, Xü-de ZHANG, Min WEI, Shi-min ZHAO, Zheng-qing QIU. Efficacy of Low Dose Corticosteroid Therapy in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy[J]. Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital, 2014, 5(4): 384-388. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-9081.2014.04.006
  • Cited by

    Periodical cited type(28)

    1. 彭晓艳,陈朝英,涂娟,高洁,李华荣. 儿童肾小管酸中毒的临床特点及诊治. 中国医刊. 2025(01): 74-78 .
    2. 辛宇,徐俊杰,臧丽. Gitelman综合征导致糖代谢异常的相关因素分析. 中华糖尿病杂志. 2025(01): 153-161 .
    3. 张磊,乐偲,刘岩,陈丽萌. 遗传性罕见肾脏病:精准肾脏病学的窗口. 罕见病研究. 2024(01): 1-11 .
    4. 陈丽萌,陈朝英,张抒扬,张磊,彭晓艳,杨宏仙,简珊,樊晓红,蒋兰萍,董源,赵若环,吕宁,乐偲,涂娟. Bartter综合征诊疗中国专家共识(2023). 罕见病研究. 2024(01): 87-101 .
    5. 周冬祺,唐诗韵,陈秋. SLC12A3基因新型纯合突变导致的Gitelman综合征合并2型糖尿病家系追踪. 中华糖尿病杂志. 2024(02): 248-253 .
    6. 陈蓉,王曦,宋桉,王佳佳,李伟,陈适,邢小平. 青年女性,乏力,低血钾,高血糖. 协和医学杂志. 2024(02): 456-461 . 本站查看
    7. 张洪旭,李娟娟,程炳菲,辛颖. Gitelman综合征合并库欣病1例并文献复习. 临床肾脏病杂志. 2024(04): 349-352 .
    8. 何敏,吴加华,刘剑,赵延栋,王云卿,吴君平. Gitelman综合征合并下颌肿物1例并文献复习. 中国乡村医药. 2024(11): 51-52 .
    9. 马韩铮,杨玲玲,刘栋,李岩. 扶阳建中针刺法治疗以矮身材为主要表现的Gitelman综合征1例. 中医儿科杂志. 2024(04): 89-91 .
    10. 葛丹,胡雪剑. Gitelman综合征合并抑郁症1例. 中国医药科学. 2024(16): 188-190 .
    11. 林彦琳,毕丽妨,王珏. 单等位 SLC12A3基因突变致Gitelman综合征1例的遗传学分析. 国际遗传学杂志. 2024(05): 361-365 .
    12. 周奇,李沁原,刘雅莉,罗征秀,张卫社,陈彤,李国保,商洪才,杨克虎,张波,陈耀龙,张抒扬. 罕见病指南的制订:现状、挑战与机遇. 协和医学杂志. 2023(03): 621-628 . 本站查看
    13. 穆妮热·阿塔吾拉,郭艳英. Gitelman综合征并发症及常见合并症的研究进展. 医学研究杂志. 2023(05): 177-179+114 .
    14. 陈杰梅,郑跃杰,高晓洁,南晓娟. 儿童Gitelman综合征的临床特征、基因型及预后分析. 国际医药卫生导报. 2023(13): 1850-1856 .
    15. 朱惠娟,卢琳,张晓波,吕晓虹,张丁月,陈适. 双侧岩下窦静脉采血在库欣综合征诊断中应用的专家共识(2023). 罕见病研究. 2023(03): 365-376 .
    16. 穆妮热·阿塔吾拉,马福慧,张凯迪,王新玲,郭艳英. 2011-2020年新疆某三甲医院低钾血症病因构成及血钾特点分析. 新疆医学. 2023(06): 639-642+669 .
    17. 阚路兰,田茂强,唐一蜜. 以腹痛为首发症状的轻型Gitelman综合征患儿1例及文献复习. 中华妇幼临床医学杂志(电子版). 2023(04): 473-479 .
    18. 李雪峰,韩宾宾,王善龙,姜卫波,彭慧芳,姜宏卫. 不同伴随症的Gitelman综合征的诊治研究. 临床医学. 2023(11): 1-4 .
    19. 阮希成,朱荣杰,蔡奕琪,郑浩,林程,陈宏斌. 妊娠合并Gitelman综合征1例. 福建医科大学学报. 2023(05): 380-382 .
    20. 李文文,鲁瑾. Gitelman综合征伴胰岛素抵抗1例. 中华糖尿病杂志. 2023(Z1): 96-98 .
    21. 陈甜甜,王晓东,余海燕. 双胎妊娠合并Gitelman综合征孕妇的妊娠结局及文献复习. 中华妇幼临床医学杂志(电子版). 2023(05): 559-568 .
    22. 赵喆,唐彦,周婧雅,陈晓光,张磊,陈丽萌,袁涛. 50例Gitelman综合征患者临床特征和药物治疗分析. 协和医学杂志. 2022(02): 277-286 . 本站查看
    23. 谢容融,金萍,杨幼波,张勤,熊静. 全外显子组测序诊断2例Gitelman综合征. 中南大学学报(医学版). 2022(03): 401-406 .
    24. 陈正,吴娟,邱瑜,刘建萍. Gitelman综合征伴2型糖尿病一例报道. 中国糖尿病杂志. 2022(05): 370-374 .
    25. 李敏,黄稳莹,张甜,郭英. 1例Gitelman综合征合并亚临床甲状腺功能减退症患者SLC12A3基因突变位点鉴定及遗传分析. 山东医药. 2022(15): 86-89 .
    26. 朱凯瑞,李霞,李晓岚. 从1例Gitelman综合征探讨低钾血症的全科诊疗思路. 巴楚医学. 2022(02): 14-17 .
    27. 甘佳乐,刘超,方亮娟. SLC12A3基因突变致Gitelman综合征1例. 国际遗传学杂志. 2022(06): 499-502 .
    28. 仝天,王瑞英,张力辉,刘志红,骆建芹,赵占胜. 血镁正常的Gitelman综合征1例及文献复习. 临床荟萃. 2022(11): 1031-1036 .

    Other cited types(4)

Catalog

    Article Metrics

    Article views (1025) PDF downloads (266) Cited by(32)
    Related

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return
    x Close Forever Close