Analysis of the Burden of Acute Lymphoid Leukemia in China and Globally from 1990 to 2021

Objective To analyze the disease burden of acute lymphoid leukemia(ALL) and its changing trends in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, aiming to provide a theoretical basis for disease prevention, treatment, and policy formulation.

Methods Data on the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability adjusted life years(DALYs) of ALL in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD) 2021 database. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC) to assess the trends in disease burden. Decomposition analysis was employed to identify and quantify the contributions of different factors to the changes in ALL disease burden. The population attributable fraction(PAF) was used to compare the risk factors for ALL in China and globally in 1990 and 2021. Stratified by the sociodemographic index(SDI), the locally estimated scatterplot smoothing(LOESS) method was used to assess the association between age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR), and SDI. The incidence-mortality ratio(IMR) was calculated to evaluate the diagnostic level and current treatment status of ALL.

Results From 1990 to 2021, ASIR of ALL in the Chinese population increased from 3.385/100 000 to 3.637/100 000(AAPC: 0.005), the age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR) increased from 6.596/100 000 to 22.022/100 000(AAPC: 0.478), the ASMR decreased from 3.051/100 000 to 1.357/100 000(AAPC: -0.056), and the age-standardized DALYs rate(ASDR) decreased from 195.792/100 000 to 74.063/100 000(AAPC: -3.996). Globally, the corresponding figures were: ASIR decreased from 1.789/100 000 to 1.371/100 000(AAPC: -0.014), ASPR increased from 4.122/100 000 to 5.425/100 000(AAPC: 0.039), ASMR decreased from 1.551/100 000 to 0.898/100 000(AAPC: -0.021), and ASDR decreased from 94.894/100 000 to 48.858/100 000(AAPC: -1.494). During this period, the aforementioned disease burden indicators were generally higher in males than in females, both in China and globally.In 2021, the peak incidence of ALL in China and globally was primarily concentrated in the 0-19 years age group, with the highest rate observed in those under 5 years of age. The burden of prevalence and DALYs was also mainly concentrated in this age group. Regarding mortality, the death burden in China was predominantly observed in the older adult age group, particularly among those aged ≥60 years. Globally, the mortality burden was highest in the under-5 age group, while remaining at a relatively high level in the older adult population. SDI correlation analysis based on data from 204 countries/regions globally from 1990 to 2021 showed that ASIR gradually increased with increasing SDI, whereas ASMR showed an initial increase followed by a decreasing trend. The ASIR and ASMR for the overall Chinese population and by sex were higher than expected. PAF results indicated that smoking and high body mass index were the main attributable risk factors for ALL mortality and DALYs burden, with their contribution consistently increasing. Decomposition analysis revealed that population growth and epidemiological changes were the primary drivers behind the changes in ALL incidence and mortality burden. Compared with 1990, the IMR for ALL in both China and globally increased in 2021.

Conclusions Over the past three decades, the ASMR and ASDR for ALL in China and globally have generally declined. During the same period, the ASIR and ASPR for ALL increased in China, while globally, the ASIR decreased and the ASPR increased. However, the disease burden of ALL remains high in males, children, and the older adult population. Differentiated prevention and control measures should be implemented in accordance with changes in SDI. The findings highlight the importance of strengthening prevention and early diagnosis, and suggest the need for targeted screening and treatment strategies for different age and sex groups. Concurrently, attention should be paid to the role of weight management and tobacco control in comprehensive prevention and control efforts to further reduce the disease burden of ALL.