1990—2021年中国中青年人群结核病的疾病负担及变化趋势

Disease burden and trends of tuberculosis among young and middle-aged populations in China from 1990 to 2021

  • 摘要: 目的 分析1990-2021年中国中青年人群结核病的疾病负担及变化趋势,为我国结核病的防治和政策制定提供理论依据。方法 从2021年全球疾病负担(Global Burden ofDisease,GBD)数据库提取1990-2021年中国中青年结核病的发病、患病、死亡等疾病负担数据,采用Joinpoint模型通过年度变化百分比(annual change percentage,APC)和估计年平均变化百分比(estimated annual percent change,EAPC)分析其变化趋势,并分析结核病的耐药情况。结果 1990-2021年间中国中青年人群结核病的患病例数逐年增长(EAPC=0.55,95% CI:0.37~0.73),潜伏性结核感染(latent tuberculosis infection,LTBI)估算感染例数从1990年的2.2亿增至2021年2.8亿,同期活动性结核病患病例数则从82.6万例下降至42.6万例。男性与女性不同年龄组患病率、死亡率均呈下降趋势,但随着年龄增加患病率增加显著,50~54岁达到峰值;相比女性,男性在所有年龄组结核病负担更重。1990-2021年中青年结核病死亡负担贡献最大的是广泛耐药结核病(extensive drug-resistanttuberculosis,XDR-TB)和无广泛耐药的多药耐药结核病(multidrug-resistant tuberculosis,MDR-TB),患病率则是以LTBI为主,在患病各年龄组中百分比维持在90%。年龄对结核病患病率与死亡率的影响呈近似线性增加。年龄效应显示,结核病患病率、死亡率在各年龄组均呈现降低趋势;周期效应表明,结核病患病率随着时间推移先升后降,其中在2012-2016年风险最低(RR=0.91,95% CI:0.89~0.92),结核病死亡率随着时间显著下降,在各年龄组平均年降幅超过5%;队列效应显示,出生越晚,结核病患病风险越低,尤其是1972年以后出生的人群总体风险较低,1997-2001年出生队列风险最低(RR=0.91,95% CI:0.87~0.95),死亡率类似。结论 尽管过去30多年中国中青年人群结核病疾病负担趋势有所缓解,但LTBI者呈现增加趋势、耐多药结核病形势依旧严峻,男性及年龄较大人群结核病疾病负担较重,应重点对中青年中高危亚群(如糖尿病患者、密切接触者、免疫功能低下者)开展LTBI筛查与预防性治疗展LTBI系统性干预与监测,减轻社会结核病负担和经济损失。

     

    Abstract: Objective This study aims to analyze the disease burden and changing trends of tuberculosis(TB) among young and middle-aged populations in China, providing a scientific basis for strengthening TB prevention and control measures in our country. Methods Using the data from GBD 2021, the APC model was employed to assess the changes in TB prevalence and mortality in China between 1990 and 2021, and to analyze the drug resistance of TB. Results Between 1990 and 2021, the number of tuberculosis cases among young and middle-aged populations in China increased annually (EAPC=0.55; 95% CI:0.37 to 0.73). The estimated number of latent tuberculosis infections (LTBI) rose from 220 million in 1990 to 280 million in 2021, while the number of active tuberculosis cases decreased from 826,000 to 426,000 during the same period.Both the prevalence and mortality rates showed a downward trend across all age groups in males and females, but the prevalence increased significantly with age, peaking at 50-54 years. Compared to females, males bore a heavier burden of TB across all age groups. From 1990 to 2021, the most significant contributions to the mortality burden of TB among young and middle-aged populations were extensive drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) and multidrugresistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) without extensive drug resistance, while the prevalence was predominantly LTBI, maintaining a 90% percentage across all age groups. The impact of age on the prevalence and mortality rates of TB showed an approximately linear increase. The age effect demonstrated a declining trend in both the prevalence and mortality rates of TB across all age groups. The cycle effect indicated that the prevalence of TB initially increased and then decreased over time, with the lowest risk observed between 2012 and 2016 (RR=0.91,95% CI:0.89~0.92). The mortality rate of TB showed a significant decline over time, with an average annual reduction exceeding 5% across all age groups. The cohort effect revealed that the later the birth year, the lower the risk of TB, particularly among individuals born after 1972, who exhibited the lowest overall risk. The cohort born between 1997 and 2001 had the lowest risk (RR=0.91,95% CI:0.87~0.95), with similar mortality rates. Conclusions Although the tuberculosis disease burden among China's middle-aged and young population has somewhat eased over the past 30+ years, the rising number of LTBI cases and the persistent severity of MDR-TB-with heavier burdens on middle-aged populations-call for targeted LTBI screening and preventive treatment for high-risk subgroups (e.g., diabetic patients, close contacts, and immunocompromised individuals), as well as systematic intervention and monitoring, to reduce the social burden and economic losses of the disease.

     

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