Abstract:
Objective To evaluate the global epidemiological patterns of pancreatic cancer across regions and nations in 2022 and to project its future burden through 2050.
Methods This study utilized data from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database to analyze incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer in 185 countries and territories. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIR) were calculated. Stratified analyses were conducted based on Human Development Index (HDI) categories and population data. In addition, country-level data on smoking prevalence, alcohol consumption per capita, and overweight prevalence were obtained from publicly available WHO databases to perform exploratory ecological correlation analyses and HDI-adjusted sensitivity analyses. Future trends in incidence and mortality through 2050 were projected using the Cancer Tomorrow tool.
Results In 2022, there were 510,992 new cases and 467,409 deaths from pancreatic cancer worldwide, with an ASIR of 4.69 and ASMR of 4.21 per 100,000 population; the global MIR was 0.898. Males had significantly higher incidence and mortality rates than females, and the risk increased sharply with age, particularly among the elderly. There were substantial disparities in burden across development levels:countries with very high HDI showed significantly higher ASIR and ASMR than those with lower HDI, while MIR decreased with increasing HDI, indicating disparities in diagnostic and treatment capacities. Smoking prevalence, alcohol consumption, and overweight prevalence were all positively correlated with pancreatic cancer ASIR and ASMR, and the associations for smoking and alcohol remained significant after adjustment for HDI. By 2050, the global number of new cases and deaths is projected to rise to approximately 999,000 and 936,000, representing increases of 95.4% and 100.3%, respectively. High-HDI countries may emerge as a key contributor to the future pancreatic cancer burden, showing both substantial absolute increases and relatively rapid growth.
Conclusion Pancreatic cancer has an extremely poor prognosis, with mortality nearly matching incidence. Its global burden is projected to rise substantially, with marked disparities across regions and development levels. These findings highlight the need for enhanced screening, early diagnosis, and multimodal treatment for high-risk populations to achieve effective disease control.