全球胰腺癌疾病负担及2050年预测:基于GLOBOCAN 2022数据库的发病与死亡分析

Global Burden of Pancreatic Cancer and Projections for 2050: Analysis of Incidence and Mortality Based on the GLOBOCAN 2022 Database

  • 摘要: 目的 胰腺癌是一种高度恶性的消化系统肿瘤,本研究旨在评估胰腺癌在不同地区及人群中的流行现状,并预测其未来疾病负担。方法 基于GLOBOCAN2022数据库,分析185个国家和地区2022年胰腺癌的发病与死亡数据,计算年龄标准化发病率(age-standardized incidence rate,ASIR)、年龄标准化死亡率(age-standardized mortality rate,ASMR)及死亡/发病比(mortality-toincidence ratio,MIR)等指标,并结合联合国人类发展指数(human developmentindex,HDI)等级与人口数据进行分层分析。同时,整合WHO公开数据库中的国家层面吸烟率、人均酒精消费量及超重患病率数据,开展探索性生态学相关分析及校正HDI后的敏感性分析,并利用Cancer Tomorrow模块预测2050年全球胰腺癌的发病与死亡趋势。结果 2022年,全球胰腺癌新发病例510 992例,死亡467 409例,ASIR和ASMR分别为4.69/10万和4.21/10万,MIR为0.898。男性的发病率与死亡率均显著高于女性,且风险随年龄增长快速上升,在高龄人群中尤为突出。不同社会发展水平国家间的疾病负担差异明显:极高HDI国家的ASIR与ASMR总体高于中低HDI国家;同时,HDI水平越高,MIR越低,提示诊疗水平存在显著差异。国家层面吸烟率、人均酒精消费量及超重患病率均与胰腺癌ASIR和ASMR呈正相关。根据现有趋势推算,至2050年全球胰腺癌新发和死亡病例将分别增至99.9万例和93.6万例,增幅达95.4%与100.3%。其中,高HDI国家将成为未来胰腺癌增速与增量"双高"并存的核心区域。结论 胰腺癌预后极差,死亡率接近发病率,全球疾病负担加重趋势明显,且存在显著地区与发展水平差异,亟须加强高危人群筛查、早期诊断及多手段治疗,以实现有效防控。

     

    Abstract: Objective To evaluate the global epidemiological patterns of pancreatic cancer across regions and nations in 2022 and to project its future burden through 2050. Methods This study utilized data from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database to analyze incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer in 185 countries and territories. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIR) were calculated. Stratified analyses were conducted based on Human Development Index (HDI) categories and population data. In addition, country-level data on smoking prevalence, alcohol consumption per capita, and overweight prevalence were obtained from publicly available WHO databases to perform exploratory ecological correlation analyses and HDI-adjusted sensitivity analyses. Future trends in incidence and mortality through 2050 were projected using the Cancer Tomorrow tool. Results In 2022, there were 510,992 new cases and 467,409 deaths from pancreatic cancer worldwide, with an ASIR of 4.69 and ASMR of 4.21 per 100,000 population; the global MIR was 0.898. Males had significantly higher incidence and mortality rates than females, and the risk increased sharply with age, particularly among the elderly. There were substantial disparities in burden across development levels:countries with very high HDI showed significantly higher ASIR and ASMR than those with lower HDI, while MIR decreased with increasing HDI, indicating disparities in diagnostic and treatment capacities. Smoking prevalence, alcohol consumption, and overweight prevalence were all positively correlated with pancreatic cancer ASIR and ASMR, and the associations for smoking and alcohol remained significant after adjustment for HDI. By 2050, the global number of new cases and deaths is projected to rise to approximately 999,000 and 936,000, representing increases of 95.4% and 100.3%, respectively. High-HDI countries may emerge as a key contributor to the future pancreatic cancer burden, showing both substantial absolute increases and relatively rapid growth. Conclusion Pancreatic cancer has an extremely poor prognosis, with mortality nearly matching incidence. Its global burden is projected to rise substantially, with marked disparities across regions and development levels. These findings highlight the need for enhanced screening, early diagnosis, and multimodal treatment for high-risk populations to achieve effective disease control.

     

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