融合传统风险评分参数的机器学习模型对急性心肌梗死患者院内主要不良心血管事件的预测价值

Predictive Value of Machine Learning Models Incorporating Conventional Risk Score Parameters in Predicting In-Hospital Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction

  • 摘要: 目的 整合传统风险评分参数,应用机器学习(machine learning,ML)算法构建并验证急性心肌梗死(acute myocardial infarction,AMI)患者发生院内主要不良心血管事件(major adverse cardiovascular events,MACE)的新型风险预测模型,以期为临床风险分层提供更精确的评估工具。方法 回顾性纳入2019年1—12月于兰州大学第一医院胸痛中心就诊并接受急诊经皮冠状动脉介入治疗(percutaneous coronary intervention,PCI)的883例AMI患者。收集全球急性冠状动脉事件注册(Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events,GRACE)评分、心肌梗死溶栓(thrombolysis in myocardial infarction,TIMI)风险评分及年龄-肌酐-射血分数(Age-Creatinine-Ejection Fraction,ACEF)评分的相关参数,以院内MACE为研究终点。采用随机森林(random forest,RF)、轻量级梯度提升机(light gradient boosting machine,LightGBM)及极限梯度提升(extreme gradient boosting,XGBoost)三种ML算法构建预测模型。应用Boruta算法进行特征选择,采用Shapley加性解释(SHapley Additive exPlanations,SHAP)方法解析模型特征贡献。通过受试者工作特征曲线下面积(area under the receiver operating characteristic curve,AUROC)及精确率-召回率曲线下面积(area under the precision-recall curve,AUPRC)评估模型效能,并绘制模型校准曲线以评价模型校准度。结果 共纳入883例AMI患者,院内MACE发生率为3. 06%。经Boruta算法筛选,确定Killip分级、左心室射血分数(left ventricular ejection fraction,LVEF)、血肌酐(creatinine,Cr)、收缩压(systolic blood pressure,SBP)、院前心脏骤停(cardiac arrest,CA)及心率(heart rate,HR)为关键预测特征。在测试集中,LightGBM模型的整体区分能力最优,AUROC为0. 93 (95% CI:0.80~1.00)。在反映MACE识别精度的AUPRC指标方面,RF模型表现最佳[0. 68 (95% CI: 0. 30 ~ 0. 94)],且稳定性最高。特征重要性分析显示,Killip分级对风险预测的贡献最大,Cr与LVEF次之。校准曲线分析显示,模型在低风险区间预测准确,但在中、高风险区间可能分别存在高估与低估趋势。结论 基于GRACE、TIMI和ACEF评分参数构建的ML模型在AMI患者院内MACE预测中的表现优于传统评分,其中LightGBM模型的区分能力最佳,RF模型在识别高危患者方面更具优势。Killip分级、LVEF及Cr是其核心预测特征。

     

    Abstract: Objective To integrate parameters from conventional risk scores and apply machine learning (ML) algorithms to develop and validate a novel risk prediction model for in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI),with the aim of providing a more accurate assessment tool for clinical risk stratification. Methods This study retrospectively enrolled 883 AMI patients who presented to the Chest Pain Center of the First Hospital of Lanzhou University between January and December 2019 and underwent emergent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Parameters required for the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score,Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score,and Age-Creatinine-Ejection Fraction (ACEF) score were collected,with in-hospital MACE as the study endpoint. Three ML algorithms—Random Forest (RF),Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM),and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)—were used to develop prediction models. Feature selection was performed using the Boruta algorithm,and model interpretability was assessed using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC). Calibration curves were plotted to assess model calibration. Results Among the 883 AMI patients included,the in-hospital MACE incidence was 3.06%. Boruta feature selection identified Killip class,Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction (LVEF),serum creatinine (Cr),systolic blood pressure (SBP),cardiac arrest (CA),and heart rate (HR) as key predictors. In the testing cohort,the LightGBM model showed the highest discriminative ability (AUROC 0.93,95% CI: 0.80-1.00),while the RF model achieved the best precision for MACE prediction (AUPRC 0.68,95% CI: 0.30 - 0.94 ) with the greatest stability. Feature importance analysis identified Killip class as the most influential predictor,followed by Cr and LVEF. Calibration curves indicated accurate predictions in the low-risk range,with overestimation and underestimation in intermediate- and high-risk ranges,respectively. Conclusions ML models based on GRACE,TIMI,and ACEF parameters outperformed conventional risk scores in predicting in-hospital MACE among AMI patients. LightGBM exhibited the highest discriminative ability,RF was superior in identifying high-risk patients,and Killip classification,LVEF,and Cr were identified as core predictive features.

     

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