脓毒症及其并发症的风险预测模型研究进展

Advances in Risk Prediction Models for Sepsis and Its Complications

  • 摘要: 脓毒症作为全球重症医学领域的重大挑战,其高发病率与死亡率促使针对该病的精准风险预测模型开发成为研究的热点,尤其基于机器学习/深度学习的预测模型备受关注。本文系统梳理了脓毒症风险预测模型的发展与临床转化挑战,重点分析了其在脓毒症常见并发症(如急性肾损伤、脑病、凝血功能障碍)中的临床适用性。现有研究表明,机器学习模型通过整合电子健康记录中的多维动态数据,显著提升了早期预警与个体化预测效能,但数据标准化不足、算法可解释性欠缺及缺乏充分的外部验证是制约其临床转化的主要瓶颈。未来研究应依托多中心协作、时序建模策略及可解释性人工智能框架,优化临床转化路径,推动脓毒症风险分层从传统经验模式向数据驱动的精准范式转型。

     

    Abstract: As a major challenge in the global field of critical care medicine, sepsis is associated with high morbidity and mortality, driving intensive research into the development of precise risk prediction models. Among these, machine learning and deep learning-based predictive models have garnered particular attention. This article systematically reviews the evolution of sepsis risk prediction models and the challenges associated with their clinical translation, with a focus on their clinical applicability in common septic complications, including acute kidney injury, encephalopathy, and coagulation disorders. Current evidence indicates that machine learning models, by integrating multidimensional dynamic data from electronic health records, significantly enhance early warning capabilities and individualized predictive performance. However, major bottlenecks limiting clinical translation include insufficient data standardization, lack of model interpretability, and inadequate external validation. Future research should prioritize multicenter collaboration, time-series modeling strategies, and explainable artificial intelligence frameworks to optimize clinical translation pathways and facilitate the paradigm shift from traditional empirical approaches to data-driven precision strategies in sepsis risk stratification.

     

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