中国青少年和年轻成人胃癌疾病负担分析与趋势预测

Analysis and Prediction of Disease Burden of Gastric Cancer among Chinese Adolescents and Young Adults

  • 摘要: 目的 分析中国青少年和年轻成人(adolescents and young adults,AYA)的胃癌疾病负担现状与流行病学趋势,为制定公共卫生政策、降低疾病负担提供依据。方法 通过全球疾病负担(Global Burden of Disease,GBD)2021数据库,获取1990—2021年中国AYA胃癌的流行病学数据。对中国AYA胃癌的流行病学现状与变化趋势进行描述和分析,并通过ARIMA模型预测2022—2050年AYA胃癌的发病率与死亡率变化趋势。同时,分析相关危险因素对疾病负担的影响。结果 2021年中国AYA胃癌的发病率和死亡率分别为4.12/10万和1.86/10万,相较于1990年有所降低,但仍高于世界平均水平。男性群体的疾病负担明显高于女性群体,可能与高钠饮食、吸烟等危险因素相关。高钠饮食造成的疾病负担占比为7.39%~7.87%,吸烟造成的疾病负担占比为6%~7%。预估2022—2050年,中国女性AYA胃癌的死亡率可能出现下降趋势。结论 中国AYA胃癌的疾病负担高于同期世界平均水平,男性群体尤为明显。加强控烟政策、推广低钠饮食等公共卫生政策有可能减轻AYA胃癌的疾病负担。

     

    Abstract: Objective To analyze the current status and epidemiological trends of the disease burden of gastric cancer among adolescents and young adults (AYA) in China, so as to provide a basis for formulating public health policies and reducing the disease burden. Methods Epidemiological data on gastric cancer among AYA in China from 1990 to 2021 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. The epidemiological status and changing trends of gastric cancer among AYA in China were described and analyzed. Additionally, the incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer among AYA from 2022 to 2050 were predicted using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Meanwhile, the influence of relevant risk factors on the disease burden was analyzed. Results In 2021, the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer among AYA in China were 4.12 per 100,000 and 1.86 per 100,000 respectively. Although these figures had decreased compared to those in 1990, they remained higher than the world average. The disease burden in the male population was significantly higher than that in the female population, which might be associated with risk factors such as a high-sodium diet and smoking. The disease burden attributable to a high-sodium diet accounted for 7.39% - 7.87%, and that due to smoking accounted for 6% - 7%. It is projected that the mortality of gastric cancer among female AYA in China may exhibit a downward trend from 2022 to 2050. Conclusion The disease burden of gastric cancer among AYA in China is higher than the world average during the same period, especially notable in the male population. Public health policies such as strengthening tobacco control and promoting a low-sodium diet may contribute to alleviating the disease burden of gastric cancer among AYA.

     

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