炎症生物标志物对ICU多发伤患者下肢深静脉血栓形成的预测价值

The Predictive Value of Inflammatory Biomarkers for the Formation of Lower extremity Deep Vein Thrombosis in ICU Polytrauma Patients

  • 摘要: 目的 分析ICU多发伤患者下肢深静脉血栓(lower extremity deep vein thrombosis,LEDVT)形成的危险因素,并联合炎症生物标志物评估其对ICU多发伤患者形成LEDVT的预测价值。方法 回顾性收集2021年5月至2024年12月兰州大学第二医院外科ICU和急诊ICU收住的多发伤患者的临床资料,根据患者住院期间下肢血管彩色多普勒超声检查结果,将其分为血栓组和非血栓组,采用多因素Logistic回归分析法筛选LEDVT形成的独立危险因素并构建预测模型,绘制受试者操作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线和校准曲线,对模型性能进行评价。结果 共纳入多发伤患者401例,其中血栓组279例,非血栓组122例。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示:年龄(OR=1.09)、损伤严重度评分(injury severity score,ISS)(OR=1.18),C反应蛋白(C-reactive protein,CRP)(OR=1.01)、血小板与淋巴细胞比值(platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio,PLR)(OR=0.99)、白蛋白(albumin,ALB)(OR=0.93)、抗凝血酶Ⅲ(antithrombin Ⅲ,ATⅢ)(OR=1.03)、中心静脉置管(OR=3.97)是ICU多发伤患者LEDVT的独立危险因素。以炎症生物标志物PLR联合年龄、ISS、ALB、CRP、ATⅢ等指标构建ICU多发伤患者LEDVT风险评估模型,其ROC曲线下面积为0.888(95%CI:0.85~0.91),明显高于独立危险因素年龄、ISS、CRP、ALB、ATⅢ 的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.734(95%CI:0.66~0.77)、0.773(95%CI:0.72~0.81)、0.657(95%CI:0.60~0.70)、0.592(95%CI:0.54~0.64)、0.774(95%CI:0.73~0.81)、0.590(95%CI:0.54~0.63)。结论 PLR为ICU多发伤患者LEDVT的独立危险因素,联合年龄、ISS、CRP、ALB、ATⅢ 构建的预测模型具有较高预测价值和临床意义。

     

    Abstract: Objective To analyze the risk factors for lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (LEDVT) formation in ICU polytrauma patients and to evaluate the predictive value of combined inflammatory biomarkers for LEDVT development in this population. Methods A retrospective study was conducted to collect clinical data from polytrauma patients admitted to the Surgical ICU and Emergency ICU of the Second Hospital of Lanzhou University between May 2021 and December 2024. Patients were categorized into thrombus and non-thrombus groups based on lower extremity vascular color Doppler ultrasound findings during hospitalization. Multivariable Logistic regression analysis was employed to identify independent risk factors for lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (LEDVT) and construct a predictive model. The model's performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves. Results A total of 401 polytrauma patients were included, comprising 279 in the thrombosis group and 122 in the non-thrombosis group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the following were independent risk factors for LEDVT in ICU polytrauma patients: Age (OR=1.09), Injury Severity Score (ISS) (OR=1.18), C-reactive protein (CRP) (OR=1.01), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) (OR=0.99), albumin (ALB) (OR=0.93), antithrombin III (ATⅢ ) (OR=1.03), and central venous catheterization (OR=3.97). An LEDVT risk assessment model for ICU polytrauma patients was constructed using the inflammatory biomarker PLR combined with age, ISS, ALB, CRP, and ATⅢ. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for this model was 0.888 (95% CI: 0.85–0.91). This AUC was significantly higher than those of the individual independent risk factors: Age (AUC=0.734, 95% CI: 0.66–0.77), ISS (AUC=0.773, 95% CI: 0.72–0.81), CRP (AUC=0.657, 95% CI: 0.60–0.70), ALB (AUC=0.592, 95% CI: 0.54–0.64), ATⅢ (AUC=0.774, 95% CI: 0.73–0.81), and central venous catheterization (AUC=0.590, 95% CI: 0.54–0.63). Conclusion PLR is an independent risk factor for LEDVT in ICU polytrauma patients. The prediction model constructed by combining PLR with age, ISS, CRP, ALB, and ATⅢ demonstrates high predictive value and clinical significance.

     

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