1990—2023年中国与全球1型糖尿病疾病负担及变化趋势分析

Analysis of Disease Burden and Trends of Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus in China and Globally from 1990 to 2023

  • 摘要: 目的 基于全球疾病负担(Global Burden of Disease,GBD) 2023数据库,系统分析1990—2023年中国与全球1型糖尿病type 1 diabetes mellitus,T1DM)的疾病负担及长期变化趋势,为制订T1DM的防控策略提供循证依据。方法 提取GBD2023数据库中1990—2023年中国与全球及不同社会人口学指数socio-demographicindex,SDI)地区的T1DM发病率、患病率、死亡率及伤残调整生命年(disability-adjustedlife years,DALYs)数据,计算年龄标准化发病率(age-standardized incidence rate,ASIR)、年龄标准化患病率age-standardized prevalence rate,ASPR)、年龄标准化死亡率age-standardized mortality rate,ASMR)及年龄标准化DALYs率age-standardized DALYsrate,ASDR)。采用Joinpoint回归模型计算平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change,AAPC),分析各指标的长期变化趋势,并按性别和年龄组进行分层分析。采用Das Gupta分解法,将T1DM疾病负担变化分解为人口增长、人口年龄结构变化和流行病学变化3种效应,评估各因素的贡献。结果 2023年全球T1DM的ASIR为3.67/10万,较1990年3.16/10万)上升AAPC=0.46%);同期中国ASIR由1.86/10万升至2.63/10万(AAPC=1.08%)。全球ASPR由95.06/10万升至103.71/10万(AAPC=0.28%),中国ASPR由51.95/10万升至62.29/10万AAPC=0.55%)。与此相反,全球ASMR由0.90/10万降至0.65/10万(AAPC=-0.80%),中国由0.59/10万降至0.19/10万(AAPC=-3.30%);全球ASDR及中国ASDR均呈下降趋势,高SDI地区ASIR最高(7.95/10万)且增速较快,低SDI地区ASDR最高43.97/10万)。性别分析显示,男性ASIR持续高于女性,但女性死亡率降幅更大。年龄分析显示,0~14岁为发病高峰,60岁以上年龄组发病率增幅最为突出。分解分析显示,中国T1DM死亡数和DALYs数的减少主要由流行病学变化驱动(贡献率分别为+184.43%和+157.85%);全球发病数和患病数的增加则主要由人口增长效应主导(贡献率分别为+77.33%和+64.69%)。结论 1990—2023年,中国与全球T1DM均呈现(发病与患病持续上升、死亡与DALYs显著下降”的趋势。T1DM存活患者数量的持续增加将对长期并发症防治和医疗资源配置带来持续压力。未来应加强本土化监测数据的收集,重点关注儿童T1DM的早期诊断与治疗、中老年患者慢性并发症的综合管理,以及低SDI地区胰岛素可及性的持续改善。

     

    Abstract: Objective Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates, this study systematically analyzed the disease burden and long-term trends of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) in China and globally from 1990 to 2023, aiming to provide evidence-based support for the development of T1DM prevention and control strategies. Methods We extracted data on the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of T1DM in China, globally, and across regions with different sociodemographic index (SDI) levels from the GBD 2023 database for the period 1990–2023. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), agestandardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) were calculated. Joinpoint regression models were employed to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and analyze long-term trends, with stratified analyses by sex and age group. The Das Gupta decomposition method was applied to decompose changes in T1DM burden into three components: population growth, population age structure changes, and epidemiological changes, to evaluate the contribution of each factor. Results In 2023, the global ASIR of T1DM was 3.67/100 000, an increase from 3.16/100 000 in 1990 (AAPC = 0.46%); over the same period, the ASIR in China rose from 1.86 to 2.63 /100 000 (AAPC = 1.08%). The global ASPR increased from 95.06 to 103.71 /100 000 (AAPC = 0.28%), while the ASPR in China increased from 51.95 to 62.29 /100 000 (AAPC = 0.55%). In contrast, theglobal ASMR declined from 0.90 to 0.65 /100 000 (AAPC = –0.80%), and the ASMR in China declined from 0.59 to 0.19 /100 000 (AAPC = –3.30%). Both global and Chinese ASDR showed declining trends. The highest ASIR was observed in high-SDI regions (7.95 /100 000) with a relatively rapid increase, while low-SDI regions had the highest ASDR at 43.97 /100 000. Sexstratified analysis revealed that ASIR remained consistently higher in males than in females, but females experienced a greater decline in mortality. Age-stratified analysis showed that the incidence peaked in the 0~14 age group, with the most prominent increase observed in those aged ≥60 years. Decomposition analysis indicated that the reduction in T1DM deaths and DALYs in China was primarily driven by epidemiological changes (contributing +184.43% and +157.85%, respectively); whereas the global increases in incident cases and prevalent cases were predominantly driven by population growth (contributing +77.33% and +64.69%, respectively). Conclusions From 1990 to 2023, both China and globally exhibited a trend of "rising incidence and prevalence alongside significant declines in mortality and DALYs" for T1DM. The sustained increase in the number of surviving T1DM patients will impose continued pressure on the prevention and management of long-term complications and the allocation of healthcare resources. Future efforts should strengthen the collection of localized surveillance data, with a focus on early diagnosis and treatment of T1DM in children, comprehensive management of chronic complications in middle-aged and elderly patients, and continued improvement of insulin accessibility in low-SDI regions.

     

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