基于门诊“患者画像”的资源配置与服务优化:一项单中心观察性研究

Resource Allocation and Service Optimization Based on Outpatient "Patient Profiles":A Single-Center Observational Study

  • 摘要: 目的 分析门诊患者的结构与行为模式,构建长期、动态患者全景画像,探讨科室号源供需紧张程度与学科声誉的相关性,为优化医院资源配置与服务提供参考。方法 基于2015—2025年北京协和医院门诊数据,对患者特征进行描述性分析,采用Spearman相关分析检验科室候补成功率与复旦大学医院排行榜、中国医院科技量值排行榜间的关联;采用综合预测模型对未来门诊趋势进行预测。结果 门诊患者男女比例约为1:2,年龄集中于30~60岁。京外医保患者占比逐年上升,2025年占比为31.68%;专病门诊占比提升至21.64%。全院平均候补成功率为17.05%,与复旦大学华北地区排行榜(r=0.540,P=0.002)、复旦大学总排行榜(r=0.621,P<0.001)、科技量值排行榜(r=0.487,P=0.003)、5年科技量值排行榜(r=0.545,P=0.001)均呈正相关。患者复诊人次占比呈下降趋势,2025年占比为68.49%。预测显示,未来5年门诊量年均增长率约为4.90%,其增长主要来源于中老年及女性患者。结论 北京协和医院的服务范围持续拓展,服务内涵向专科化、精准化发展。高声誉科室面临的供需矛盾更为突出,这为客观评估科室服务压力与品牌效应间的动态关系提供了新的研究视角。建议依托数据驱动的管理策略,构建资源动态调配与服务体系优化机制,以推动医院高质量发展。

     

    Abstract: Objective To analyze the structure and behavioral patterns of outpatient populations, construct a long-term and dynamic panoramic patient profile, and explore the correlation between departmental supply-demand tension and academic reputation, thereby providing evidence for optimizing hospital resource al-location and services. Methods Based on complete outpatient data from Peking Union Medical College Hospi-tal from 2015 to 2025, we performed descriptive analysis of patient characteristics. Spearman correlation analysis was used to assess the relationship between departmental waitlist success rates and the Fudan Hospital Ranking as well as the Chinese Hospital Science and Technology Evaluation Metrics. Prediction models were in-tegrated to forecast future outpatient trends. Results The male-to-female ratio among outpatients was approxi-mately 1:2, with the majority aged 30-60 years. The proportion of non-locally insured patients increased an-nually, reaching 31. 68% in 2025, while the share of specialized disease clinics rose to 21. 64%. The overall average waitlist success rate was 17. 05%, which showed significant positive correlations with the Fudan North China Regional Ranking (r=0. 540, P=0. 002), the overall Fudan Ranking (r=0. 621, P<0. 001), the Sci-ence and Technology Evaluation Ranking (r=0. 487, P=0. 003), and the 5-year Comprehensive Science and Technology Evaluation Ranking (r=0. 545, P=0. 001). The proportion of revisit visits exhibited a declining trend, falling to 68. 49% in 2025. Predictions indicated an average annual growth rate of approximately 4. 90% in outpatient visits over the next five years, driven mainly by middle-aged, elderly, and female patients. Conclusions Peking Union Medical College Hospital has continuously expanded its service coverage while deepening specialization and precision in service delivery. High-reputation departments face more pronounced supply-demand contradictions, offering a new perspective for objectively assessing the dynamic relationship be-tween service pressure and brand influence. We recommend that the hospital adopt data-driven management strategies to establish dynamic resource allocation and service optimization mechanisms, thereby promoting high-quality institutional development.

     

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